The Rockies best projected pitcher may not surprise you

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The Rockies best projected pitcher may not surprise you

PostitusPostitas liny195 » 27.05.19, 11:20

Josh Hader Jersey , but the best hitter will"WhiteFanposts Fanshots Sections Scaling the RocksPebble ReportRockpileRockies Game ThreadsRockies Fan ExperienceScaling the Rocks6 takeaways from the Rockies’ PECOTA projectionsNew,9commentsThe Rockies best projected pitcher may not surprise you, but the best hitter willMSTShareTweetShareShare6 takeaways from the Rockies’ PECOTA projectionsBaseball Prospectus released its PECOTA projections Thursday morning, and that’s grist for our mountainous mill. While the projections aren’t usually too far from what a lot of us expect, they are useful. For one, they add context. I know a great deal and think a lot about the Rockies — not so much the Pirates. Looking at how other teams are projected helps me put what I perceive to be the Rockies’ strengths and weaknesses in a better frame. They also offer hidden insight. The projections are the product of something like a million-plus season simulations. It’s no surprise that new insights emerge from such a large amount of processed information.So, with that in mind, here are a few early takeaways from the 2019 PECOTA projections. The NL is competitive!The Rockies are projected to finish with an 85-77 record. Considering that record projections should be viewed as +/-8 wins as a result of (mis)fortune, that seems about right. It also makes me feel pretty good. That feeling, however, is tempered by looking around the rest of the NL. Only three teams are projected to finish with fewer than 81 wins: The Giants, the Marlins, and the Padres. Getting to 90 wins and a spot in the postseason won’t be easy. At least the NL West is projected to have two out of the three worst team’s in the NL, and the Rockies get to play them a total of 38 times. The Rockies offense is...good?Earlier this offseason, BP released DRC+, which is (at the very least) the most thoroughly adjusted batting statistic that exists. It’s also the first one that park adjusts at the plate appearance level, which is particularly important for understanding Rockies batters. Projected team-level DRC+ in the NL ranges from 86-101 Starlin Castro Jersey , and he Rockies are projected at 100. They are one of seven teams clustered from a projected 98 DRC+ to 101. This may still be because DRC+ appears to be overcorrecting for the Coors Hangover, but it could also mean that the offense isn’t the weakness a lot of us have supposed. The Rockies’ best hitter: Daniel MurphySpeaking of DRC+, Murphy is projected to lead the team with a 136 mark. While it’s just two points better than Nolan Arenado’s projected 134, it’s still noteworthy. If Murphy can come anywhere close to this projection, it’ll be hugely important for the Rockies and their chances. The Rockies’ best pitcher: German M谩rquezThis is entirely believable. PECOTA projects M谩rquez to post 3.0 pitcher wins above replacement player (PWARP), which would actually be a step back from the 4.7 he had in 2018. Don’t let that be a word of discouragement though. M谩rquez’s projection is the sixth best among all NL starters. Here’s another way to think about this projection: Did Kyle Freeland’s amazing 2018 distract us from the real breakout pitcher? At the very least, PECOTA is more convinced of M谩rquez than Freeland (projected to finish with 1.5 PWARP). Don’t forget about Jon GraySo, if M谩rquez is projected to be the Rockies best pitcher, who’s projected to be their second best? That would be Jon Gray, who has a 2.3 PWARP according to this model. This talk about “which of these three pitchers will be the best and oh yeah they’ll all probably be pretty good anyway” is new and very exciting.But about that pitching depthBP’s visual depth charts show that the Rockies top four pitchers are projected to be about as good as the Dodgers’ top four. Antonio Senzatela even has a good projection (0.9 PWARP) in the five spot. It gets dicey after the top five though. If we still use the Dodgers as a comparison, they have Kenta Maeda (1.4 PWARP) and Julio Ur铆as (1.5) listed as spot starters. The best the Rockies have is a 0.4 PWARP in 53 innings projection for Jeff Hoffman. Which, by the way, would be pretty good. It just doesn’t match the Dodgers’ pitching depth. 鈽?鈽?鈽匴ith these projections out, I am now extremely ready for baseball to start. If you’ve had a chance to dig into the PECOTA projections, what sticks out to you? Sean M. Haffey/Getty ImagesThe Los Angeles Dodgers probably won't return to the World Series if they again commit four errors and surrender a home run to an opposing pitcher in Game 2 of the National League Championship Series.Those improbable outcomes likely won't carry over into Saturday's showing. Yet they nearly overcame these obstacles, as the Milwaukee Brewers' revered bullpen barely salvaged a dramatic 6-5 victory Friday.For the second day in a row, each squad willcommence the game with a left-handed starter on the mound. Both of them kept the opposition scoreless in National League Division Series sightings.After horrid defense and a Brandon Woodruff homer undid Clayton Kershaw , the Dodgers will turn to Hyun-Jin Ryu, an unheralded ace over the past two months. The Brewers will counter with Wade Miley, an innings-eater who has transformed his career by overhaulinghis pitch arsenal. Dodgers vs. Brewers: Game 2 ScheduleWhen: Saturday, Oct. 13 at 4:09 p.m. ETTV: FoxLive Stream: Fox Live TVTickets: StubHubSurging SouthpawsWade Miley will look to continue his career revival in the NLCS.Dylan Buell/Getty ImagesAt first glance, Ryuvs. Miley doesn't represent a superb pitching duel befitting the grand stage. After all, Chris Sale and Justin Verlander clash later in the evening.While Ryu can't match the pedigree of his superstar rotation teammate, the 31-year-old quietly registered a 1.97 ERA and career-high 27.5 strikeout percentage in 15 superb regular-season starts. He then opened the NLDS by scattering eight strikeouts and no walks over seven shutout innings against the Atlanta Braves:ESPN Stats amp; Info ESPNStatsInfoThis is Hyun-Jin Ryus 2nd career postseason start of 7 scoreless innings (2013 NLCS).The only other Dodgers to do it multiple times are Sandy Koufax, Jerry Reuss and Orel Hershiser. l9GV2AopwdDominating in a Game 1 nod received over Kershaw marks quite a turnaround for someone left off last year's postseason roster. Havingundergoneshoulder labrum surgery in 2015, he hadn't made a playoff appearance since 2014 despite the Dodgers' winning the NL West in each of the past six years.Following his latest gem, Ryu has relinquished one run in his past four starts. He has also not given up more than three earned runs in a single turn this year, so the Dodgers can at least count on a competitive outing.He's somehow not even this matchup's most improbable Game 2 starter. Playing for his fifth team in as many years, Miley posted an ERA north of 5.00 in each of the past two seasons. That makes this season's 2.57 clip extra shocking when paired with a mediocre 50 strikeouts and 27 walks in 80.2 innings.A 37.1 hard-hit percentage and 4.66 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) foreshadow a vengeful regression. Yet perhaps those predictive measures don't appreciate the journeyman's adjustments.Miley sidelined his fastball for a previously seldom-used cutter. The pitch's usage skyrocketed from 11.5 to 41.8 percent, and opponents are hitting .190/.258/.303 against the offering.Buoyed by his new weapon, Miley accomplished exactly what the Brewers needed in the NLDS by holding the Colorado Rockies scoreless for 4.2 innings at Coors Field. Their extraordinary bullpen yielded one hit the rest of the way.Brewers manager Craig Counsell will hope to execute the same plan on Saturday. He won't, however, have Josh Hader at his disposal after the shutdown reliever recorded nine outs over46 pitches鈥攁 longer appearance than starter Gio Gonzalez鈥攖o secure Game 1's victory:ESPN Stats amp; Info ESPNStatsInfoJosh Hader made it difficult on the Dodgers in Game 1.He induced 15 swings and misses, tied for his most in a game in 94 career outings (regular season amp;amp; postseason).Haders 15 swings and misses are 2 more than any other reliever in a postseason game in the last 10 seasons. qQxrzxaoyLBy using another starting southpaw Martin Prado Jersey , Counsell is daring Dodgers counterpart Dave Roberts toagain sit Max Muncy鈥攈ardly a necessary move since he managed an .891 OPS against fellow lefties鈥攁nd Yasiel Puig. Their weighted runs created plus (wRC+) dropped from 117 against righties to a slightly above-average 101 versus leftiesduring the season."There's going to be some kind of chess played this series, and that's part of the fun," Roberts said prior to Game 1, per The Ringer's Michael Baumann.Yet they have plenty of depth to deal with any adversary, especially after adding right-handed infielders Brian Dozier and David Freese during the summer.Travis Shaw is the only Milwaukee regular who's a major liability (66 wRC+) with a lefty on the mound, but Counsell replaced the out-of-position second baseman for Hernan Perez on Friday.Pick: Dodgers 5, Brewers 3The Dodgers can again field a nearly all-righty lineup鈥攚ith exception to Cody Bellinger鈥攖hat saves Muncy, Puig and Joc Pederson for big spots against Milwaukee's premier bullpen. With Woodruff and Hader almost certainly unavailable, Counsell may think twice before again turning to a righty so early.Yet Miley tallied the sixth-lowest strikeout percentage (14.8) of any starter with at least 80 innings pitched, so the Dodgers could force an early hook by jumping to a significant lead.Propelled by major league-caliber defense and a strong performance from Ryu, look for the Dodgers send the series back to Los Angeles even. It's impossible, however, to feel overly confident about any prediction in a series wherein a reliever who was batting from the left side took Kershaw deep.All advanced stats courtesy of FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.
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